Thriving in uncertainty is what I am good at. It is my job as an innovation expert. Yet, even I find myself being pulled in all directions at the moment. So, I went back to the basics. You have two options when things are uncertain: wait or act. Acting makes me feel better because waiting is not in my character. However, that is not always the best approach.
Pulled in All Directions
Major disruption has hit me several times. The first time it became clear to me that COVID-19 would have far-reaching implications was when two of our kids came home from college. Within a week, we had to move both out of their dorms. Soon thereafter, all my in-person workshops and gigs were canceled. Significant revenue for the second quarter vanished.
The second time was when Generative AI turned out to be so powerful that it made our core software solution obsolete. Being disrupted is never easy—click here for more on this story.
And now, we’re facing yet another wave of uncertainty. The political climate in the U.S., driven by the upcoming elections, regulatory unpredictability, and economic volatility, is making long-term planning feel impossible. Firms are hesitant to commit, AI governance is a moving target, and the pace of AI adoption has created both immense opportunities and deep anxieties about the future of work.
My dear husband is always positive. According to him, it will all turn out okay. However, seeing more money going out of my bank account than coming in makes me nervous.
Turning to online webinars for insights and advice often made me more confused and anxious. One webinar tells you to work twice as hard. Another tells you to take care of yourself and let it all go because we are not superheroes. So, what is it? What am I supposed to do? No lie, I would love to be a superhero!
My clients seem equally confused. Some are very clear about not wanting any help. They have come to the conclusion that they first want to figure it out themselves. Others are grateful for a listening ear and open to trying new offerings in these challenging times.
Thriving in Uncertainty
I love solving problems, coming up with creative solutions, and finding new angles. I always see a path forward, even in dire circumstances. That has served me well, especially with all the moves we made back and forth across the Atlantic Ocean as a family. I am not afraid—I thrive in uncertainty!
When facing uncertainty or new situations, I practice what I preach. I define the general direction. Set my goals. List the assumptions I am making and start testing what works and what doesn’t. Based on the feedback I receive, I adjust my plans until I am in a place where it seems I was meant to be. This approach has always served me well in the past. On occasion, I have even ended up in better places than I thought possible.
Assumptions
If you are curious, my current list of assumptions are:
- Uncertainty has become impossible to ignore, and the current political climate is adding fuel to the fire.
- Generative AI is here to stay, and we have only seen the tip of the iceberg in terms of what it can do.
- The adoption of Generative AI is not a technology problem but a human problem.
- Companies that were innovating before—even just at a small scale—are better positioned to experiment with Generative AI if they have a properly functioning innovation process that enables them to test and explore new avenues quickly.
- Companies that paid lip service to innovation will not be able to pick up the new game fast enough unless the organization is small (less than 20 employees).
Assumptions like these give me a sense that I have a grasp on the future despite all the uncertainties. They may not be true. However, as long as I monitor the assumptions I am using to shape my future, I know that I am safe and that I will recognize when I need to change course.
In recent weeks, however, I have found that the current uncertainties are different. Previously, I faced uncertainty and had choices to make, but the world was relatively stable. Now, in the current uncertainty, the feedback loop is broken when I am testing ideas and assumptions. It is increasingly difficult to get reliable feedback about what works and what doesn’t. At best, I receive very noisy signals. Simply put, especially for people in the government space don’t know what they need or want—now or in the near future. This time, the uncertainty is external.
Back to Basics
So what are the two fundamental choices you have when facing uncertainty? Wait and act.
My reaction so far has been: act and act more. Which probably has contributed to getting even noisier feedback.
Waiting
Sometimes, waiting is the best solution. But waiting is scary as it can mean you will miss the boat altogether.
Did you know that for a goalkeeper trying to stop a penalty, it is statistically better to wait before choosing a corner? However, most goalies prefer to dive for a corner anyway. It feels much better to take action than to wait. That is why you often see goalies dive in the wrong direction. Nevertheless, making the wrong decision still feels better than waiting for the ball to come your way. The latter feels silly and lazy, despite being the response more likely to lead to a successful outcome.
What if I just paused for a just few weeks? I would have time to enjoy the moment, take care of myself, play music, and stay fit. I could listen to my clients without any constraints and work to further improve our current offerings. That way, when clients are ready, I will meet them where they are. Writing it out, this sounds like a solid strategy.
However, my anxious self tells me to take action. I have the brains, energy, and ability to help others in this crisis. That is what my inner voice tells me.
