Sometimes it seems as if innovating is addictive. Once a project starts—an AI pilot, a new platform, a workflow redesign—it becomes surprisingly difficult to stop. You have to bring it to a good end. At first, because it was fun and exciting. Later, because your reputation is at stake.
Nobody wants to be a quitter.
However, the latter could not be further from the truth. It is much braver and better to stop an unpromising project and look for greener pastures. Three tips to prevent escalation of commitment in the innovation process.
Why is it difficult to stop?
Escalation of commitment is a known problem. We have been taught not to stop something because it is difficult. When the going gets tough, the tough keep going! Society certainly does not favor quitters! So what is worse, giving up too soon or holding on too long? We are conditioned to believe that giving up too soon is worse.
Not surprisingly, research shows therefore that it is more the anticipated drop regret, that plays a significant role in commitment to a failing course of action. Anticipated keep regret actually reduces commitment (source).
This phenomenon was first described by Barry Staw in his research on escalation of commitment and later reinforced by studies in behavioral economics and entrepreneurship. Teams often continue investing in a project not because the evidence supports it, but because prior investments create psychological pressure to persist.
Aligned with these findings, other research shows that hope is a stronger driver to keep going than fear. The entrepreneurial teams that participated in this study kept going, as long as they believed in a good outcome.
Early warning signs of escalation of commitment
Before looking at solutions, it helps to recognize the warning signs. Escalation of commitment often shows up when:
- Teams report activity rather than outcomes
- Critical assumptions remain untested
- The main argument becomes “we have already invested too much to stop”
- Teams focus on easy tasks instead of mission-critical uncertainties
When these patterns appear, it is time to pause and reassess.
Avoiding escalation of commitment
If we translate these findings, there are three ways to avoid escalation of commitment, and facilitate teams stopping timely in the innovation process.
Know that teams are more likely to stop, if they don't believe in the good outcome anymore and won't have to regret dropping out too soon.
1. Focus on the mission-critical issues first
In the early stages of the innovation process, teams should focus on the mission-critical assumptions first.
That means identifying the assumptions being made about the new solution and determining which ones would make the project unfeasible if proven wrong.
Addressing these critical uncertainties early prevents teams from spending time polishing ideas that ultimately will not work.
In our experience, this is the most effective way to avoid escalation of commitment. When teams gather evidence that their core assumptions are invalid, they reach the conclusion themselves that the project should not continue.
Stopping then becomes a rational decision based on evidence rather than a painful admission of failure.
2. Celebrate stopping as a win
As long as stopping is associated with being a quitter and a loser, there is not much pride to be gained in stopping.
Therefore it is essential to reframe the action. Embrace the action of stopping with a lessons learned report that describes what the organization should not do. And celebrate this outcome as a success.
Make it easy for teams to say, "we stop here and we learned A, B, and C".
3. Make restarts possible
A third factor that helps teams stop at the right time is knowing that projects can always be revisited later.
Stopping a project should not mean closing the door forever. Instead, teams can document the conditions under which the opportunity might become viable again.
For example:
“If conditions A, B, or C change in the future, it may be worthwhile to reconsider this opportunity.”
This approach removes the fear of making the wrong decision today. If the project was stopped too early, the organization can always return to it when circumstances improve.
The goal is to remove the anticipated drop regret, which often keeps teams locked into unpromising projects.
Case study
Many innovation teams assume that stopping a project means failure. In practice, stopping early often prevents much larger losses later.
In several innovation programs we supported, teams discovered within the first 4-8 weeks that a key assumption behind their project did not hold. Instead of continuing to refine the idea, they were encouraged to test the critical uncertainties first.
Once the evidence became clear, the team made a go/no-go decision early in the process.
By stopping the project at that point, the organization avoided investing months of work in an initiative that would not have delivered value. Even more importantly, the team gained a much clearer understanding of where the real opportunities lay.
This kind of disciplined decision-making helps organizations focus their resources on projects with genuine potential.
Knowing what not to do
A patent attorney once explored the idea of adopting new AI-driven software to attract clients and increase revenue. Initially, the opportunity looked promising.
However, after evaluating the idea more carefully, it became clear that adopting the technology would require a major overhaul of the practice—something the attorney was not yet ready to undertake.
By following a structured process, the opportunity could be evaluated quickly and objectively.
Afterward, the attorney reflected:
“It was a good exercise. The probing questions got me thinking. It refined my outlook on my practice and I benefited from evaluating the opportunity.”
He also added:
“It is very useful to know where the field is headed. I now know what to look for and have a more nuanced position when it comes to these software solutions.”
In this case, stopping the project early saved time and resources—while still producing valuable insights.
Final thought
Innovation is not about finishing every project that starts. It is about learning quickly which ideas deserve continued commitment.
Organizations that innovate successfully are not the ones that never stop projects. They are the ones that stop the wrong projects early—and double down on the right ones.
Success with avoiding escalation of commitment!
Related readings: